Ottawa – Employment in Canada’s construction and maintenance industry is anticipated to grow by 50,200 workers by 2029. When coupled with the anticipated retirement of more than 257,000 construction workers over the same period, the industry will need to recruit more than 307,000 workers over the decade to keep pace with demand, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward national report forecasts intensifying labour demand commencing in 2020, propelled by major public transportation and infrastructure, utility, liquefied natural gas (LNG), pipeline, and health services projects. New-housing construction is expected to bounce back in most provinces, building on growing non-residential construction and maintenance demands fueled by ongoing investments in public and private infrastructure and increasing heavy industrial maintenance requirements.
“Canada’s construction outlook has strengthened from last year,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Our scenario predicts that growth will slow in the latter half of the decade, although labour market challenges are anticipated to intensify as the retirement wave crests and the pool of available youth shrinks.”
The most significant growth is expected to take place between 2020 and 2021.
British Columbia will remain the fastest-growing market in 2020 and 2021, driven by public transportation projects, pipelines, and work on the LNG Canada project and related pipeline infrastructure.
Ontario is expected to peak in 2020, driven by major project requirements in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Southwestern Ontario. These include light rail transit (LRT) projects, two nuclear refurbishment projects, and other infrastructure-related demands. This will be followed by a second peak expected in 2026.
Quebec’s infrastructure investments in roads, highways, bridges, health care, education, and public transit are expected to accelerate in 2020 and 2021, building on four years of growth.
Prince Edward Island also continues to grapple with expansions in housing and institutional requirements, while Nova Scotia braces for increased demands driven by several health care projects expected over the next few years.
“Meeting anticipated peak employment demands in British Columbia and Ontario will likely require significant levels of interprovincial mobility,” says Ferreira. “Accessing workers from provinces where market conditions have softened will be critical.”
The outlook for the national residential sector has improved significantly, as robust immigration-driven population growth is expected to support high levels of new homebuilding through 2026. That pace of growth is expected to moderate thereafter, as increasing retirements should contribute to lower overall demand for new homes. While new-home construction may soften, renovation and maintenance requirements are anticipated to rise significantly. Overall, total residential construction employment is expected to rise by 17,200 workers over the 2020–2029 period.
Non-residential employment demands are also expected to grow throughout the scenario period. The principle driver has been an explosion of major projects in the energy and utilities sectors, public transportation, and other institutional infrastructure projects. Growth in retail and wholesale trade, the transportation and warehousing sectors, and manufacturing should further boost construction of industrial buildings, while immigration-driven population growth will maintain upward pressure on commercial and institutional construction.
Employment in non-residential construction is expected to rise by 33,100 workers (+6%) over the scenario period.
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. As such, replacing retiring workers typically requires several years of pre-planning to avoid the creation of skills gaps. By 2029, an estimated 257,100 construction workers, or 22% of the 2019 labour force, are expected to retire. Based on historical trends, Canada’s construction industry is expected to draw an estimated 227,600 first-time entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population, leaving the industry with a possible retirement-recruitment gap of 29,500 workers. When coupled with demand growth, the industry may be short as many as 82,400 workers by 2029. Clearly, an ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will be necessary to ensure there are sufficient numbers of qualified tradespeople to sustain a skilled labour force over the long term.
To meet its growing needs, the construction and maintenance industry will need to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, Canada’s construction industry employed approximately 191,700 women, of which 27% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 1.1 million tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 4.7%. Similarly, Indigenous people accounted for little more than 4.9% of the total, of which about 81% work directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address future labour force needs.
New Canadians currently make up approximately 18% of Canada’s construction labour force. Over the coming decade, Canada is seeking to admit an average of 330,000 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important source of potential workers.
“The construction industry will need to concentrate on recruiting, training, and retaining young workers, even as peak labour demand slows,” says Ferreira. “Even if the labour market leverages full interprovincial mobility, the industry will still need to be diligent in recruiting, training, and retaining young workers, and expand recruiting efforts for new workers from local labour, other industries, and new immigrants to meet ongoing labour needs.”
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Kate Walsh
Director of Communications
Canada’s Building Trades Unions
(613) 236-0653
Rod Gilbert
Vice President Public Affairs
Canadian Construction Association
(613) 236-9455 ext. 432
Kevin Lee
CEO
Canadian Home Builders Association
(613) 230-3060
Wayne Prins
Executive Director
CLAC
(877) 863-5154
Walter Pamic
Chair
Merit Canada
(613) 836-4311
Warren Douglas
National Construction Labour Relations Association
(306) 352-7909
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contracts Association of Canada
(403) 620 3781
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa — Major non-residential projects and record levels of housing starts combined to drive construction activity in British Columbia to new highs in 2019. The province’s construction and maintenance industry labour market has already been demanding unprecedented numbers of skilled workers and will continue to demand more — 11,700 by 2021 — according to the latest labour market outlook released today by BuildForce Canada.
Based on the number of currently tracked projects, construction demands will remain exceptionally high for the next couple of years and peak in the latter half of 2021. However, even as demand moderates somewhat over the scenario period, demand levels are expected to remain well above 2019 levels. When coupled with the anticipated retirement of baby boomers from the labour force, the industry will be challenged to keep pace with recruitment, training, and its labour force development needs throughout the decade.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial forecast report indicates that the BC construction and maintenance industry will be driven primarily by non-residential projects. The residential sector will also remain strong, as moderate declines in new housing construction should be more than offset by growing renovation and maintenance demands.
“Unemployment in the BC construction industry remains at historically low levels, below 4%,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “While the industry will need to focus on long-term recruitment and skills development strategies, worker mobility will be critical to meeting the province’s anticipated construction needs, particularly over the short term.”
Non-residential demand is being driven by several major overlapping projects, including ongoing work at Site C, the LNG Canada export terminal, the related TC Energy Coastal GasLink pipeline, and the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion. Major public infrastructure projects include the Pattullo Bridge Replacement, several transit projects, and ongoing expansion work at the Vancouver International Airport.
These projects will combine to increase employment demand in the non-residential sector by 10,300 skilled workers by 2021. Although non-residential employment will moderate throughout the decade, employment in the sector will be 6,700 workers higher than current levels by 2029.
Employment related to residential renovations and maintenance is projected to grow by 21,600 workers across the scenario period. While growth will be slightly dampened by lower overall demand for new housing, residential employment should rise by 8,300 workers (+7%) over the decade, with the strongest gains seen between 2025 and 2027.
As a whole, construction employment in the province should be 14,900 workers higher by 2029 than employment levels today. During this period, industry retirements will affect labour markets across the entire province, with about 44,200 workers expected to retire over the next 10 years. Based on historical trends, the industry can expect to draw an estimated 37,800 first-time local new entrants aged 30 and younger into the provincial labour force.
As a sub-region of the provincial construction market, the Lower Mainland accounts for approximately 62% of the industry’s overall employment, or 119,500 of the 192,600 workers employed in the province. Of these 119,500 workers, approximately 64% work in the residential sector, with the remaining 36% split between industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) building construction, the maintenance sector, and engineering construction.
Between 2020 and 2029, Lower Mainland demand for both residential and non-residential construction is expected to grow, though non-residential demands, driven primarily by public-sector investments in the region’s infrastructure, should grow at a slightly higher rate. Key near-term projects include the Pattullo Bridge Replacement, the Vancouver International Airport expansion, pipeline projects, St. Paul’s hospital, the Millennium Line (Broadway), the Surrey Langley SkyTrain, and the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority container expansion program. Nearly 7,500 additional non-residential workers will likely be required to meet these regional demands by 2021, with most of the increase concentrated in 2020.
Given the industry’s current record low unemployment rate, a short-term reliance on out-of-province workers may be necessary to prevent project delays. Longer term, the industry must plan for the replacement of more than 25,300 workers expected to retire by 2029. Although the industry is expected to recruit up to 22,900 first-time local new entrants aged 30 and younger during this period, a recruitment gap is expected to emerge. When added to the anticipated demand growth for workers in the region, the industry in the Lower Mainland will need to recruit nearly 17,500 workers from other provinces, other industries, or from outside the country to keep pace with currently known regional construction demands.
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. Between 2013 and 2019, more than 54,470 apprentices registered in the province’s 20 largest construction programs, with 19,300 completions reported during that period. Based on current apprenticeship registration and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels that could potentially lead to an undersupply of certified journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Boilermakers, carpenters, glaziers, heavy equipment operators, industrial electricians, lathers and metal fabricators, painters, and welders may be at higher risk. Although apprentices alone cannot meet the significant near-term demand requirements for journeypersons, an ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, approximately 36,300 women were employed in British Columbia’s construction industry, of which 34% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 192,500 tradespeople employed in the province’s construction and maintenance industry, women made up only 6.4%. Similarly, Indigenous people also represented a small percentage of the construction labour force, accounting for little more than 5.7%, of which 82% worked directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address its future labour force needs.
British Columbia’s construction workforce is made up of approximately 24% new Canadians. Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome an average of 50,000 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of construction and maintenance industry labour force growth.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Andrew Mercier
Executive Director
British Columbia Building Trades
(778) 397-2220
Kelly Scott
President
BC Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association
(604) 436-0220
Neil Moody
President and CEO
Canadian Home Builders’ Association – BC
(604) 432-7112 ext. 304
Ryan Bruce
Membership Development & Government Relations
CLAC
(250) 331-1465
Kim Barbero
CEO
Mechanical Contractors Association of British Columbia
(604) 205-5058
Scott Bone
President
Northern Regional Construction Association
(250) 596-9901
Phil Long
Interim CEO
Southern Interior Construction Association
(250) 215-5811
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
(403) 620-3781
Fiona Famulak
President
Vancouver Regional Construction Association
604-293-6585
[email protected]
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa – Although Alberta’s construction market slowed in 2019, a potential for modest growth is expected through the next decade, driven by a strengthening residential sector in the near term, and strengthening non-residential demand over the longer term. Given expected industry retirements, this demand may leave the province with a shortfall of 23,700 workers by the end of 2029, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report forecasts employment requirements for both the residential and non-residential sectors to increase by nearly 23,400 workers (+13%) between 2020 and 2029.
The intensification of near-term work on several petrochemical projects and oil and gas pipeline expansions — including completion of the Canadian portion of Enbridge’s Line 3 in 2019 and the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion to 2023 — is expected to maintain non-residential construction employment over the short term.
While a number of significant new oil and gas projects are being tracked, there are currently no short-term projects included in the outlook. The completion of both the Enbridge and Trans Mountain pipeline projects should help kickstart the construction of a number of new and currently tracked major oil sands investments later in the decade.
“Due to the intense and time-sensitive nature of industrial shutdown and turnaround maintenance work, seasonal recruiting challenges may arise,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “We expect labour force requirements in both 2020 and 2021 to be higher than normal.”
Many of the skilled trades required for maintenance are in high demand, so these projects can create periods of seasonal labour force tightness. Alberta may also face recruiting challenges as it competes for highly specialized workers with other provinces, particularly Ontario and British Columbia, where several major capital projects requiring similar skills are ongoing or expected to commence shortly.
Ongoing road, highway, and bridge work and major planned public transportation investments in both Calgary and Edmonton are also expected to sustain non-residential construction, although scope and scheduling details for some of these projects are still fluid. Several large office tower projects are expected to reach completion in 2020, even as near-term office vacancy rates rise. Restrained government spending should moderate investment in institutional buildings in 2020 and 2021.
For the period between 2020 and 2029, non-residential construction activity will require the industry to increase employment by more than 14,700 workers, concentrated between 2023 and 2027.
Despite weaker market conditions in 2019 due to declines in new-housing construction, a modest recovery in housing starts and increased renovation activity is expected to return the residential labour market to balance by 2020. The residential sector is expected to add just over 8,700 residential workers (+12%) by 2029, driven by a moderate strengthening in new-housing demands, with rising renovation activity projected to contribute nearly 2,700 workers to that total.
“In the first two quarters of 2019, Alberta led the country in terms of population growth, boosted by both natural growth as well as international and interprovincial migration," says Ferreira. “This rise in the population should translate into greater demand for construction services in the latter half of our outlook, particularly for housing and commercial and institutional buildings.”
The population increase should also help ameliorate the impact of retirements on the province’s construction labour force, which is expected to lose 41,500 workers to retirement over the decade while only drawing in an estimated 40,300 local new entrants aged 30 and younger over the same period. When coupled with the rise in demand for construction services, the provincial labour force may be short 23,700 workers by 2029.
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. From 2013 to 2019, more than 84,200 apprentices registered in Alberta’s 19 largest construction trade programs, with 40,260 completions reported during that period. BuildForce Canada is starting to track the number of skilled trades workers with Certificates of Qualifications. Based on current apprenticeship completion trends and anticipated retirement levels throughout the decade, several trades may see a reduction in the number of certified journeypersons. Boilermakers and carpenters are at a higher risk. Although apprentices alone cannot meet the significant near-term demand requirements for journeypersons, an ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will be necessary to ensure there are sufficient numbers of qualified tradespeople to sustain a skilled workforce over the long term.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to rely on increased recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, Alberta’s construction industry employed approximately 38,200 women, of which 33% worked on-site, directly on construction projects. Although Alberta is the leading employer of women within the construction trades (slightly ahead of British Columbia), women made up only 6.8% of the 183,500 tradespeople employed in the industry. Similarly, Indigenous people also represented a small percentage of the construction labour force, accounting for approximately 6.4% of the total. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the Alberta industry address future labour force needs.
Alberta’s construction workforce is made up of approximately 17% new Canadians. Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome a net annual average of 36,000 newcomers, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry.
Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:Ian F. Reid
Chair
Alberta Construction Association
403-319-0470 ext. 2233
Ron Glen
CEO
Alberta Roadbuilders and Heavy Construction Association
Terry Parker
Executive Director
Building Trades of Alberta
(780) 421-9400 ext. 112
Dennis Perrin
Prairies Director
CLAC
587-785-1836
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
(403) 620-3781
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa — Following two decades of strong growth, Manitoba’s construction and maintenance industry is set to cool somewhat over the first half of the next decade, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada. The winding down of activity on major projects combined with lower levels of road, highway, and bridge work, and lower levels of new-housing construction are expected to take construction employment moderately lower between 2020 and 2024 — with some recovery later in the decade.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial forecast report projects that construction employment will decline by close to 4,000 workers (-10%) over the next five years to 2024. A modest recovery of 1,100 workers is expected to follow to 2029. In total, construction employment declines by close to 2,900 over the scenario period.
“Since 2009, the Manitoba construction industry has grown by more than 10,000 new workers, driven by stronger demand for residential construction, major hydro-related projects, infrastructure investments, and immigration-driven population growth,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “That accounted for a 26% increase over the period. The modest decline over the next 10 years should be seen in that context.”
In the residential sector, employment related to the construction of new homes is expected to decline through 2026, reducing the workforce by 1,000 workers over the coming decade. However, moderate growth in renovation and maintenance work should add nearly 800 workers. That would see overall residential employment down by a modest 1% over the scenario period.
Non-residential employment is expected to moderate over the next two years following the completion of several major construction projects, including Manitoba Hydro’s Keeyask hydroelectric dam, the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline expansion, Winnipeg’s Southwest Rapid Transitway, J.R. Simplot Co.’s potato processing plant, the ARTIS 40-storey development, and several road and highway projects. Non-residential employment should decline by 3,200 workers through to 2022 as these projects are completed.
Over the remainder of the scenario period, employment requirements are expected to be driven by moderate gains in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings and maintenance work. Engineering construction should cycle downward between 2021 and 2024, as several projects wind down before stabilizing over the latter part of the scenario period.
Modest gains in ICI building construction, infrastructure projects, and projected growth in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors are expected to drive employment in the non-residential sector between 2025 and 2029.
About 8,100 workers are projected to retire from the construction labour force by 2029. Based on historical trends, Manitoba’s construction industry is expected to draw an estimated 7,900 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population over the next decade.
“Manitoba may almost be able to counterbalance retirements, taking advantage of a population that skews younger than other provinces,” says Ferreira. “But the population continues to age overall. The industry has an excellent opportunity right now to continue outreach, training, and recruitment efforts to ensure that labour market needs continue to be met through to 2029 and beyond.”
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. More than 9,200 apprentices registered in the 16 largest construction trade programs in Manitoba between 2013 and 2019, with 4,330 completions reported during this period. Based on current apprenticeship registration and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels that could lead to a potential undersupply of certified journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Boilermakers, industrial electricians, and welders may be at higher risk. An ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, approximately 5,700 women were employed in Manitoba’s construction industry, of which 23% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 38,200 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 3.4%. Manitoba has done well in attracting Indigenous people into the construction industry. Approximately 16% of the province’s construction labour force is made up of Indigenous people, of which about 81% work directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address its future labour force needs.
Manitoba’s construction workforce is made up of approximately 15% new Canadians. Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome an average of 15,550 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Sudhir Sandhu
Chief Executive Officer
Manitoba Building Trades
(204) 956-7425
Lanny McInnes
President and CEO
Manitoba Home Builders Association
(204) 925-2560
Ramona Coey
Executive Director
Mechanical Contractors Association of Manitoba
(204) 774-2404
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
(403) 620-3781
Darryl Harrison
Manager, Policy and Research
Winnipeg Construction Association
(204) 755-8664 ext. 2249
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa – Labour force demand in Saskatchewan’s construction and maintenance industry should grow modestly by 2029, with the residential sector picking up the pace as non-residential projects are completed, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
Beginning in 2020, Saskatchewan’s residential and non-residential markets are expected to diverge, with a recovery in new residential housing construction offsetting declines in the non-residential sector. BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report forecasts that the pace of overall employment declines is expected to stabilize in 2020–2021, bolstered by stronger exports that support moderate economic growth, and an anticipated recovery in the construction of new housing and industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings.
“We expect a period of moderate growth to follow, with new resource-sector investments anticipated after 2021,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “That demand is expected alongside a continued recovery in new-housing construction driven by stronger population growth.”
Overall, construction employment is expected to grow modestly by the end of the 2020–2029 scenario period, with larger gains concentrated in residential and ICI building construction.
In the non-residential sector, the completion of the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline and a decline in highway and bridge work should contribute to a modest decline in employment between 2020 and 2021. Thereafter, non-residential requirements are expected to rise by 2,400 workers (+8.6%) between 2022 and 2024, driven in part by the anticipated start of proposed major potash mine expansion and gas plant projects.
“As the decade progresses, however, non-residential employment demands will increasingly be driven by the construction of ICI buildings and maintenance work as major engineering project construction declines from peak levels,” says Ferreira.
The non-residential labour force finishes the scenario period with an additional 600 workers compared to 2019.
In the residential sector, modest gains in renovation and maintenance activity, alongside increased new-home construction, are expected to grow the residential labour force by an estimated 2,300 workers over the decade. New-housing starts are expected to recover from a record low in 2019 to 5,800 units by 2029, with growth projected to accelerate after 2021 driven by stronger overall economic growth and rising household formations.
The anticipated retirement of just over 9,100 workers dominates hiring requirements over the next decade. The availability of 9,500 new-entrant workers aged 30 or younger is projected locally. However, Saskatchewan’s ability to meet future hiring requirements of nearly 11,500 workers from the local population is dependent on limiting the outflow of skilled workers during periods of weaker growth.
“Across Canada, other provinces will be demanding the trade skills that Saskatchewan workers can supply,” says Ferreira. “The industry should be mindful about keeping the province’s workers engaged locally and ensuring that they can make the transition between non-residential and residential markets.”
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. More than 10,400 apprentices registered in the 16 largest construction trade programs in Saskatchewan between 2013 and 2019, with nearly 7,400 completions reported during this period. Based on current apprenticeship completion trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels that could potentially lead to an undersupply of journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Boilermakers, carpenters, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics, scaffolders, sheet metal workers, and welders may be at higher risk. An ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, approximately 6,300 women were employed in Saskatchewan’s construction industry. Of the total, nearly 37% worked directly on construction projects. When measured as a percentage of the overall 39,800 tradespeople employed in the industry, women accounted for only 5.7% of on-site employment.
New Canadians are also underrepresented in the province’s labour force, accounting for little more than 8% of the province’s construction workforce. Between 2020 and 2029, the province is expected to welcome more than 132,000 newcomers, making the immigrant population a key driver of labour force growth. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address future labour force needs.
Saskatchewan is also home to one of the largest percentages of Indigenous construction workers in Canada, second only to Manitoba. Approximately 12% of the province’s construction labour force is made up of Indigenous people, with about 85% working directly on construction projects. Meeting future labour market needs may also require Saskatchewan’s construction industry to increase its recruitment of Indigenous workers.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:Chris Guerette
CEO
Canadian Home Builders’ Association – Saskatchewan (Saskatoon)
(306) 292-8619
Dennis Perrin
Prairies Director
CLAC
587-785-1836
Warren Douglas
Executive Director
Construction Labour Relations Association – Saskatchewan
306-352-7909
Darren Swanson
Vice-Chair President of Merit Canada
Merit Canada
(306) 961-4118
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
(403) 620-3781
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa – The Ontario construction and maintenance sector continues to operate at close to full capacity driven by high volumes of investment in public- and private-sector infrastructure and residential activity. The industry will need to hire, train, and retain almost 100,000 additional workers to keep pace with expected demand growth and record retirements, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report predicts that both residential and non-residential sector demand will create two distinct labour market peaks, the first in 2020 and the second in 2026. BuildForce anticipates that construction employment will rise by just over 23,000 workers (+6%) by 2026 before receding by close to 13,600 workers as major projects wind down.
“The province is expected to experience low construction unemployment, high labour demand, and high numbers of anticipated retirements across the scenario period,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “The industry will need to remain focused on recruitment and training to meet demands for expansion and worker replacement over the coming decade.”
The non-residential sector will be the primary driver of labour market peaks. The 2020 peak is driven by major public transportation projects, institutional building construction and modernization, and overlapping demands from two major nuclear refurbishment projects in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Southwestern Ontario.
Coinciding subway expansions and regional rail electrification projects in the GTA, alongside numerous large hospital projects, are expected to fuel demand for key trades between 2024 and 2025. Non-residential market pressures are expected to persist to the 2026 peak, driven by ongoing and significant investments in public infrastructure.
Further strengthening of the manufacturing and trade warehousing sectors should help sustain trends in industrial building construction, while low office vacancy rates, service-sector growth, and robust population growth are expected to sustain continued commercial construction.
The non-residential labour force is expected to expand by more than 7,000 workers by 2029.
Activity in the residential sector slowed in 2019, but recent improved new-home sales suggest that a recovery in low-rise single-family home starts may commence in 2020 and lead to a further upward swing in overall housing starts over the coming decade, driven by pent-up demand and immigration-driven population growth.
Renovation activity is expected to grow at a modest pace over the decade from current high levels, with total residential employment projected to rise by 8,900 workers (+4%) through 2026, before moderating over the rest of the scenario period.
The residential labour force is anticipated to expand by nearly 7,300 workers by 2029.
“Competing demands across Ontario’s five regions – Central, Eastern, GTA, Northern, and Southwestern – are likely to limit the potential for intra-provincial labour mobility to meet peak project requirements, which draw on many of the same trades and occupations,” says Ferreira. “Though interconnected, however, each region presents a unique labour market narrative.”
Southwestern Ontario is set to experience the largest relative increase in growth in 2020, driven by the start of refurbishment work at the Bruce Power nuclear plant, acceleration in demands related to the Gordie Howe International Bridge in Windsor, and the Nova Chemicals plant in Sarnia. Scheduled industrial maintenance work should add to market challenges. Non-residential employment is expected to rise a further 1,400 workers in 2020, or 6% from 2019, following an increase of close to 2,500 workers in 2019.
The GTA will likely require an additional 3,700 workers to meet demands in 2020. The increase is driven by a rise in major project requirements related to the Eglinton, Hurontario, and Finch (LRT) projects, as well as ongoing work at the Ontario Power Generation Darlington nuclear refurbishment project. Planned subway and health-sector investments, alongside moderate growth in residential construction, will contribute to the need for an additional 19,400 workers by 2026 – a 12% increase over 2019.
In Eastern Ontario, phase two of the Ottawa LRT, the redevelopment of Parliament Hill’s Centre Block and other federal buildings, new hospital projects in both Ottawa and Kingston, and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) research and development complex in Chalk River will drive demands for an additional 3,400 workers needed by 2024, or a 7% increase over 2019.
Significant near-term demands in Northern Ontario are driven by mining, mineral-processing, and large-scale transmission infrastructure investments. Construction employment is projected to rise by close to 2,100 workers by 2021 – a 9% increase over 2019, before declining to 2024.
Central Ontario is benefiting, in part, from the spillover of expansion in the GTA. Modest growth across residential and non-residential sectors should increase labour force requirements by 2,900 workers over the decade.
Sustaining labour capacity will be made more challenging by the expected retirement of 86,300 workers – 21% of the current labour force – by 2029. The industry can potentially draw 78,900 new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population, but a projected gap of close to 21,800 workers will still need to be met.
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. Nearly 69,580 apprentices registered in the province’s 24 largest construction trade programs between 2013 and 2019, with 41,852 completions reported during this period. Based on current apprenticeship registration and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels that could lead to a potential undersupply of certified journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Boilermakers, bricklayers, heavy-duty equipment technicians, industrial electricians, and welders may be at higher risk. Although apprentices alone cannot meet the significant near-term demand requirements for journeypersons, an ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, Ontario’s construction industry employed 65,600 women, of which 23% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 394,600 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 3.8%. Similarly, Indigenous people accounted for approximately 2.7% of the province’s total construction labour force, of which about 80% work directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address future labour force needs.
Ontario’s construction workforce is made up of approximately 26% new Canadians. Over the coming decade, Ontario is expected to welcome an average of 140,000 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:Wayne Peterson
Executive Director
Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario
(905) 516-6693
Tony Fanelli
Executive Director
Construction Labour Relations Association – Ontario
(647) 296-3402
Ian Cunningham
President
Council of Ontario Construction Associations
(416) 968-7200 ext. 224
Nigel Hare
President
Ironworkers Local 765
(613) 327-7317
Mike Carter
Executive Director
London & District Construction Association
(519) 453-5322
David Frame
Director of Government Relation
Ontario General Contractors Association
(905) 671-3969
Giovanni Cautillo
Executive Director
Ontario Sewer and Watermain Construction Association
(905) 629-7766 ext. 229
John A. DeVries
President
Ottawa Construction Association
(613) 236-0488, ext. 10
Karen Renkema
Vice President and Regional Director, Ontario
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada (PCA)
(416) 768-4848
Patrick Dillon
Business Manager
Provincial Building and Construction Trades Council of Ontario
(416) 679-8887
Andrew Pariser
Vice-President
RESCON
(416) 970-7665
Adam Pinder
Executive Director
Director of Labour Relations
Sault Ste. Marie Construction Association
(705) 759-8830
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa – Following a busy 2019, Prince Edward Island’s construction and maintenance industry continues to experience broad-based expansion. Construction employment is projected to continue to rise over the next two years, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
The expansion has been propelled by strong levels of immigration and higher levels of new homebuilding, construction of institutional buildings, and a rise in engineering construction related to major utility and transportation infrastructure projects. BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report forecasts that the pace of growth will moderate slightly across the 2020–2029 scenario period.
Construction investment is expected to ease after 2020 as major utility (wind), transportation, and other infrastructure projects are completed and overall economic expansion slows. However, the province will continue to demonstrate strong population growth over the scenario period, which will sustain demand for new housing and public service facilities. As a result, construction employment is forecast to plateau at high levels after 2021.
“Despite attracting a record number of skilled trades to the province, the rapid pace of expansion has run ahead of available labour supply, leading to falling unemployment and recruitment challenges,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Meeting current and future labour demands on the island will require a continuation of the industry’s collaboration with government and educational institutions to scale up recruitment and training capacity. The industry will also need to rely on greater worker mobility and continue to engage large numbers of young people to enter the construction labour force, especially in the face of record retirements.”
In the residential sector, housing starts were driven primarily by international migration. They peaked at 1,400 units in 2019 and are expected to remain above 1,000 units to 2029. Total residential construction demands are projected to rise by a modest 6% from 2019 levels across the scenario period, with growth driven exclusively by modest increases in the renovation and maintenance market.
Non-residential construction requirements are expected to moderate between 2021 and 2025 as major industrial, institutional, and other infrastructure projects wind down. While commercial building construction is projected to lead growth over the decade, institutional construction will grow in importance as multiple health and education projects commence, including the Hillsborough mental health facility. A modest decline may follow in 2022 as some of the current inventory of commercial projects wind down, though institutional building construction is expected to remain at elevated levels across the scenario period.
PEI’s construction industry is anticipated to lose 1,500 workers to retirement over the decade, and based on historical trends, only draw in an estimated 1,200 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population. Addressing this gap between retirements and new entrants will require ongoing industry attention throughout the decade.
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. More than 755 apprentices registered in the five largest construction trade programs in Prince Edward Island between 2013 and 2019, with 390 completions reported during that period. Based on current apprenticeship registration and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels that could lead to a potential undersupply of certified journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Carpenters and construction electricians may be at higher risk. An ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current industry labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, approximately 700 women were employed in Prince Edward Island’s construction industry, of which 43% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 5,100 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up 5.7%. Similarly, Indigenous people also represented a small percentage of the construction labour force, accounting for little more than 1% of the total.
Currently, new Canadians account for less than 3% of PEI’s construction workforce. Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome an average of 2,600 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Allan Manley
Executive Officer
Canadian Home Builders Association – Prince Edward Island
902-218-6423
Sam Sanderson
General Manager
Construction Association of Prince Edward Island
902-628-5421
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa – The New Brunswick construction and maintenance industry is looking forward to 10 years of relative stability with only minor variations in employment totals between 2020 and 2029. But even as the industry achieves stability, it will need to compensate for the expected retirements of more than 6,900 workers over the next decade.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial forecast report anticipates a stable workforce, even as the requirements of the construction market fluctuate between the residential and non-residential sectors.
In the non-residential sector, the completion of major road, highway, and bridge infrastructure projects contributes to declines in employment between 2021 and 2022. After 2021, non-residential employment is supported largely by ongoing investments in health and civil infrastructure alongside stable but seasonal heavy industrial maintenance requirements, which account for a sizable portion of overall non-residential employment in the province.
Total non-residential employment is expected to decline modestly between 2020 and 2026, as work on major road and other infrastructure projects, including upgrades to the Saint John port and Fredericton airport, is completed. Refurbishment work on the Mactaquac Dam is expected to bolster engineering construction after 2026, while rising exports and growth in the manufacturing sector are expected to drive the construction of industrial projects between 2020 and 2029. Numerous hospital projects in Bathurst, Moncton, and Fredericton will help sustain institutional construction during the same period.
Overall non-residential construction employment in 2029 should settle at levels slightly higher than those in 2019.
Employment in the residential sector, which accounts for just over 40% of construction workers in New Brunswick, is projected to be sustained near 2019 levels across the scenario period. Slowing population growth should limit demand for new home construction, though moderate growth in renovation and maintenance work should help keep employment levels stable.
“These offsetting trends translate into only moderate changes in total construction employment across the entire 2020–2029 scenario period,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “However, the industry will still need to replace an expected 6,900 retiring workers. Based on historical trends, New Brunswick’s construction industry is expected to draw in only an estimated 4,200 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population. That gap will need to be addressed.”
As the province’s age demographics skew older, construction industry recruitment and training efforts will need to be maintained. The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. More than 5,520 apprentices registered in the 17 largest construction trade programs in New Brunswick between 2013 and 2019, with 3,120 completions reported during this period. Based on current apprenticeship registration and competition trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels. That could lead to a potential undersupply of certified journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Boilermakers, bricklayers, carpenters, metal fabricators, sheet metal workers, and welders may be at higher risk. An ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019 approximately 2,000 women were employed in New Brunswick’s construction industry, of which 30% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 19,300 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 3.1%. Similarly, Indigenous people were also underrepresented in the industry, accounting for approximately 2.7% of the province’s construction labour force, of which about 79% work directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address its future labour force needs.
Approximately 2% of New Brunswick’s construction labour force is made up of new Canadians. Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome an average of 5,600 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
John Landry
Executive Director
Construction Association of New Brunswick
(506) 478-0042
David Simon
Construction and Turnaround Manager
Irving Oil
(506) 650-1915
Nadine Fullarton
President
Moncton Northeast Construction Association and
Mechanical Contractors Association of New Brunswick
(506) 857-4038
Tom McGinn
Executive Director
New Brunswick Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association
(506) 454-5079
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa — Nova Scotia’s construction labour requirements are expected to increase in 2020 and 2021, driven by intensifying road, highway, and bridge works, the Sable gas plant decommissioning project, and a significant increase in investment in the health services sector, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
BuildForce Canada’s 2020–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report forecasts that stable levels of employment are expected to continue to 2029, sustained by rising construction of industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) buildings and residential and non-residential maintenance demands.
“Stable levels of employment are expected over the decade, even as moderate employment declines follow the completion of several ongoing major projects,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Total construction employment is projected to add 1,500 workers, an increase of 6% between 2020 and 2021, before receding over the latter half of our scenario period. Surging retirements and a smaller pool of younger workers available to enter the industry will require ongoing careful management to avoid the emergence of skills shortages over the next decade.”
In the non-residential sector, increased investment in health care projects, rising levels of commercial building construction, road, highway, and bridge works, and the ongoing decommissioning of the Sable and Deep Panuke gas projects are driving double-digit demand growth in 2020. Although institutional requirements are expected to recede from peak levels by 2022, demands related to the development of the Queen Elizabeth II hospital project support employment through to 2025, though at slightly lower levels. Industrial and commercial building construction is expected to strengthen over the second half of the scenario period, supported by stronger economic growth stemming from the start of the second phase of the federal (Canadian Surface Combatant) shipbuilding program.
Although no final investment decision has yet been announced, the start of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) project could significantly alter the labour market outlook for Nova Scotia.
Non-residential employment totals will range moderately higher by 2029, with a larger portion of the labour force engaged in maintenance and ICI building construction.
In the residential sector, age demographics that are skewing older and slowing population growth are projected to contribute to a downward trend in the construction of new homes after 2020. Employment requirements for new-home construction are expected to decline by 1,000 workers (-14%) to 2029, but those losses should be offset by rising renovation and maintenance work, which accounted for 60% of residential employment in 2019. This work is expected to add close to 1,400 workers by 2029.
Over the next 10 years, Nova Scotia’s construction industry will face the challenge of the retirement of more than 8,300 workers, or 27% of the province’s 2019 labour force. Based on historical trends, however, the province’s construction industry is expected to draw in only an estimated 5,700 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population over the same period.
“As the Nova Scotia population ages, competition for younger workers will increase,” says Ferreira. “It’s important for the construction and maintenance industry to reach out to younger people now and position construction as a career of choice.”
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. More than 6,900 apprentices registered in Nova Scotia’s 18 largest construction programs between 2013 and 2019, with 3,200 completions reported during that period. Based on current apprenticeship registration and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of not keeping pace with retirement levels. That could lead to a potential undersupply of certified journeypersons in some trades by 2029. Bricklayers, carpenters, gasfitters, heavy-duty equipment technicians, industrial electricians, and mobile crane operators may be at higher risk. An ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will remain necessary to avoid potential future skills shortages in the industry.
Building a sustainable labour force will also require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, Nova Scotia’s construction industry employed 3,600 women, of which 25% worked directly on construction projects. Of the 27,100 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 3.5% of the total on-site workforce. Similarly, Indigenous people also represented a small percentage of the construction labour force, accounting for little more than 5% of the total, of which about 81% work directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address its future labour force needs.
Currently, new Canadians comprise approximately 3.5% of Nova Scotia’s construction workforce. Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome an average of 6,800 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Trent Soholt,
Executive Director
Nova Scotia Construction Sector Council
902-832-4761
Duncan Williams
President and CEO
Construction Association of Nova Scotia
902-468-2267
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Ottawa – Following completions of the Lower Churchill hydro development and the West White Rose offshore platform, construction employment in Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to resume a downward trend in 2020 and 2021. A period of relative stability is expected to follow, supported by the anticipated start of the Bay du Nord offshore development project, increased institutional investment, and a modest recovery in new-housing construction, according to the labour market forecast released today by BuildForce Canada.
BuildForce Canada’s 2019–2029 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward provincial report forecasts that with current levels of construction demand and a shrinking population, the province’s construction labour force will return to levels more consistent with the pre-peak period of the late 2000s.
Under the current outlook scenario, construction employment is projected to decline by 3,200 workers over the coming decade, with the bulk of the adjustment expected to occur over the next few years.
“The labour force continues to adjust to pre-peak employment levels,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “As a consequence, some displaced workers may turn to out-of-province employment or employment in other industries over the next 10 years. Despite the ongoing adjustment, record levels of retirements over the decade could lead to periods of labour force tightness and future skills shortages if recruitment and training efforts are neglected.”
The commencement of work on the West White Rose platform and the Voisey’s Bay underground mine helped moderate employment declines in 2018 and contributed to a small employment increase in 2019. With work completed at the Tacora Resources Wabush mine, the winding down of activity at the Lower Churchill Muskrat Falls generating station project, and the expected completion of the West White Rose project by 2021, non-residential construction employment is expected to decline slightly in 2020 and again in 2021.
The anticipated start of the Bay du Nord deepwater oil development project in 2022 should offset employment declines related to the completion of the Voisey’s Bay project, but overall net gains in employment may be limited by lower demand levels for the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings, due to population declines.
In the absence of any new major construction projects following Bay du Nord, non-residential construction employment is expected to return to the pre-expansion levels of the late 2000s. Across the scenario period to 2029, non-residential employment is estimated to decline by close to 3,000 workers (-22%) as compared to 2019.
In the residential sector, an anticipated improvement in economic conditions is expected to help sustain stable renovation investment across the scenario period. While housing starts have been in decline for the past few years, the number of household formations is expected to begin rising by 2022, supporting a modest recovery in housing starts by 2026. Over the outlook period, total residential employment is expected to decrease further, but only marginally.
Between 2020 and 2029, an estimated 5,900 workers are anticipated to retire, yet the industry is expected to draw only 3,400 first-time entrants aged 30 and younger into the labour force from the local population. With one of the oldest population demographics in Canada, competition for these younger workers in the province is increasing.
The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. Between 2013 and 2019, nearly 5,120 apprentices registered in the 13 largest construction trade programs, with 3,110 completions reported during this period. To help the construction industry better measure the retention of its skilled workers, BuildForce Canada now tracks the number of provincial tradespeople in possession of certificates of qualification. Taking into account current apprenticeship completion trends and anticipated retirement levels throughout the decade, several trades may see reductions in the number of certified journeypersons. Heavy-duty equipment technicians, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics, and steamfitters/pipefitters may be at higher risk. An ongoing commitment to training and apprenticeship development will be necessary to ensure there are sufficient numbers of qualified tradespeople to sustain a skilled workforce over the long term.
Building a sustainable labour force will require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous people, and new Canadians.
In 2019, approximately 1,600 women were employed in Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction industry. Of the 17,700 tradespeople employed in the industry, women made up only 4.6%. Similarly, Indigenous people also represented a small percentage of the construction labour force, accounting for little more than 8% of the total, of which about 76% work directly on construction projects. Increasing the participation rate of both these groups would go a long way to help the industry address its future labour force needs.
Over the coming decade, Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to welcome an average of approximately 1,700 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population an important future source of potential workers for the province’s construction and maintenance industry. Currently, new Canadians make up just about 1% of the province’s construction workforce.
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to provide accurate and timely labour market data and analysis, as well as programs and initiatives to help manage labour force requirements and build the capacity and the capability of Canada’s construction and maintenance industry. Visit www.constructionforecasts.ca.
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 222.
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program.
