Press Releases

Canada’s construction sector continues to perform at an elevated level following the COVID-19 pandemic. Strong levels of investments by governments across the country have helped to stimulate the economy, demand for housing remains high, and private-sector entities continue to invest in construction. These factors combined in 2022 to increase total construction investment levels by 3% over the record high recorded in 2021.

BuildForce Canada released its 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward national forecast today. The report finds that construction activity will step down from its 2022 peak, with contractions projected for 2023 and 2024. The contraction is brief, however. Growth is poised to resume by 2025, and by 2032, total investment should increase by 1% over 2022 levels. These numbers are based on existing known demands and do not take into account the federal government’s goal to double the number of new homes built across Canada over the next 10 years, nor the anticipated increase in demand for construction services related to the retrofit of existing residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings to accommodate the electrification of the economy.

Across the forecast period, activity in the residential sector will be driven by a combination of factors. Demand for new housing is expected to contract in response to rising interest rates in the short term and return to growth between 2024 and 2029. Meanwhile, activity in the renovation and maintenance sector increases continuously. By 2032, overall residential employment is forecast to contract by a modest 5,300 workers (-1%) by 2032, with losses concentrated in the new-housing sector.

Construction in the non-residential sector will continue to benefit from stronger levels of public-sector investment in an array of projects, including major transit, utility, and road, highway, and bridge projects in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island, and strong demand for projects in the industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) sector in every province.

Employment in the non-residential sector is poised to grow almost continuously between 2023 and 2027, rising to a forecast peak of just over 600,000 workers, and by 2032, employment should be 4% higher than levels recorded in 2022, as a moderate contraction of 1% in engineering construction is more than offset by gains in the ICI and maintenance sectors.

“The construction sector saw another strong year of growth in 2022, with overall employment growing further beyond pre-pandemic levels,” says Clyde Scollan, Chair of BuildForce Canada. “More than 1.5 million Canadians, or about one in every 13 working people, now works in the industry. The challenge now is how to manage demands, given an aging labour force. Employment has been growing faster than the labour force in recent years. These trends combined to bring the industry’s national average unemployment rate to below 5% in 2022, with a record low of 2.4% achieved in July.”

Although construction employment varies year to year depending on investment levels, labour market conditions in 2022 were particularly challenging in Prince Edward Island, Ontario, British Columbia, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan. These provinces experienced investment increases in both residential and non-residential construction segments.

“Although market pressures should ease in the residential sector in 2023 and 2024 as demand for new housing contracts in response to interest rates, activity in most provinces’ non-residential sectors could remain elevated well into the middle years of our forecast period, given the high volume of large projects currently underway in many regions of the country,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada.

Construction markets expected to remain strong, despite a near-term contraction

Across the Atlantic provinces, construction activity is either at, or will soon reach, near-term peaks. The provinces’ respective residential sectors will initially contract before returning to growth between 2024 and 2026, with demand for renovation activity projected to remain elevated. Activity in the non-residential sector will fluctuate in line with various large-scale projects such as the refurbishment of the Mactaquac Dam in New Brunswick, the West White Rose redevelopment in Newfoundland and Labrador, and several civil and health care projects. Only Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are expected to report employment growth across the forecast period.

Construction activity in Quebec will be affected by competing factors. After reporting a strong year in 2022, the province’s residential sector is expected to decline across the forecast period, in line with lowering demand for new construction. Its non-residential sector will be supported in the short term by work on major projects in Montreal and Quebec City. Growth will fluctuate in later years as these works conclude.

Ontario’s construction market enters the forecast period at a time of significant growth. Although the pace of residential activity in 2023 and 2024 is projected to moderate from previous record highs, it nonetheless remains elevated and returns to growth in 2025. The non-residential sector continues to be driven by a large inventory of major infrastructure projects and a projected recovery in commercial-building construction. Unemployment should remain at or near record-low levels.

In Manitoba, non-residential construction activity has been bolstered by work on a series of infrastructure projects. These projects cycle up and down across the forecast period, alongside strong government investment and a rebounding commercial sector. As housing starts recede from recent highs, the renovation and maintenance sector is poised to become the dominant driver of residential employment in the province.

Saskatchewan’s construction sector should rise to a peak in 2027, sustained by strong growth in its residential sector post-2023, and new and ongoing manufacturing, utility, mining, school, and health care projects. A younger demographic is well positioned to replace retiring workers.

Alberta’s construction outlook is driven by competing pressures. The residential sector, and particularly its new-housing segment, faces a series of contractions through 2032. Strong gains in renovation activity should help to partially offset the anticipated declines. The non-residential sector, on the other hand, is projected to rise to peak employment by 2030 on the strength of ongoing major road and highway, health, education, commercial, industrial, and public-transportation projects, as well as growth in the oil and gas sector.

The outlook for British Columbia’s construction sector sees varying trends. The residential sector is expected to recover swiftly after 2024 as interest rates ease and the renovation sector expands. Meanwhile, activity in the non-residential sector will fluctuate with the ebb and flow of work on several major projects and is underpinned by growth in maintenance work.

“Labour markets in many provinces are experiencing tight conditions, so much so that it has become extremely challenging for companies to recruit workers from other regions or even from other provinces,” says Ferreira. “The situation is complicated by the anticipated retirement of older and experienced workers. Although younger workers are certainly capable and well trained, they lack the years of experience, skills, and knowledge of the older workers they are replacing.”

New recruitment strategies needed

The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. Replacing retiring workers typically requires several years of pre-planning to avoid the creation of skills gaps. By 2032, overall hiring requirements in the industry are expected to exceed 299,000 due to the retirement of approximately 245,000 workers (20% of the 2022 labour force) and growth in worker demand of more than 54,000.

Based on historical trends, Canada’s construction industry is expected to draw an estimated 237,800 first-time entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population, leaving the industry with a possible retirement-recruitment gap of more than 61,000 workers. Clearly, an ongoing commitment to apprenticeship development in both compulsory and non-compulsory trades will be necessary to ensure there are sufficient numbers of qualified tradespeople to sustain a skilled labour force over the long term.

“The construction industry remains focused on building a more diverse and inclusive labour force. The industry has been working hard to enhance the recruitment of individuals from groups traditionally under-represented in the construction labour force, such as women, Indigenous People, and newcomers to Canada. Creating greater awareness of the tremendous career opportunities for these individuals within the construction sector will be critical to ensuring the sector is able to meet its future workforce needs,” says Sean Strickland, Vice-Chair of BuildForce Canada.

In 2021, there were approximately 199,600 women employed in Canada’s construction industry. Of them, 27% worked directly in on-site construction. However, as a share of the total 1.16 million tradespeople employed in the industry, women accounted for just 5% of the on-site construction workforce.

The Indigenous population is another under-represented group that presents recruitment opportunities for the construction industry. In 2021, Indigenous People accounted for 5.1% of Canada’s construction labour force, which is a slight decline from the share of 5.2% observed in 2016, but is notably higher than the share of Indigenous workers represented in the overall labour force (4.1%). As the Indigenous population is the fastest growing in Canada and Indigenous workers seem predisposed to the pursuit of careers within the sector, there may be scope to further increase the recruitment of Indigenous People into the construction workforce.

The construction industry may also leverage newcomers over the coming decade to meet anticipated labour market requirements. Canada is expected to welcome an average of more than 444,600 new international migrants each year between 2023 and 2032. This will make newcomers a growing segment of the overall labour force. The national construction labour force was comprised of approximately 18% newcomers in 2021. That figure is notably lower than the overall share of newcomers in the total labour force (27%).

Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and newcomers could help Canada’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact:

Bill Ferreira
Executive Director
BuildForce Canada
[email protected]
(613) 569-5552 ext. 2220

Clyde Scollan
Chair
BuildForce Canada
(604) 802-0856

Sean Strickland
Vice-Chair
BuildForce Canada
(613) 236-0653

Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

After enjoying a strong year in 2021, Manitoba’s construction and maintenance industry experienced more moderate activity in 2022, as further work on a number of infrastructure projects offset most of the contractions created by the winding down of activity on the Keeyask dam project. Total employment was virtually unchanged as a result.

BuildForce Canada released its 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for Manitoba today. The outlook calls for a moderate contraction in employment across the forecast period (-1%), as a contraction of just below 3% in the residential sector more than offsets a slight increase of just below 1% in the non-residential sector. These numbers are based on existing known demands and do not take into account the federal government’s goal to double the number of new homes built across Canada over the next 10 years, nor the anticipated increase in demand for construction services related to the retrofit of existing residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings to accommodate the electrification of the economy.

Across the forecast period, slowing demand for new-housing construction should be offset by almost continuous growth in demand for residential renovation and maintenance work. Meanwhile, the non-residential sector should see moderate, but sustained employment growth between 2025 and 2030 as a series of projects cycle up and down.

“Construction activity in Manitoba should remain at a relatively constant and elevated level across the 10-year forecast period,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “That’s a positive sign for the industry, as it means labour markets should remain balanced across most of the forecast years. It also means that the industry should be able to satisfy its hiring requirements, given the province’s comparatively younger demographic.”

BuildForce Canada expects that approximately 7,600 workers, or nearly 19% of its 2022 labour force, will retire by 2032. At the same time, the industry is expected to attract an estimated 8,700 new workers under the age of 30 from the local population. This trend shows that industry efforts to boost recruitment to meet future needs are working, and that the industry should be able to meet its anticipated labour force demands throughout the forecast period.

“The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and most often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program,” said Ramona Coey, Executive Director of the Mechanical Contractors Association of Manitoba. “After years of declines, it was encouraging to see industry efforts to promote careers in the trades bearing some fruit as evidenced by the recent upswing in new registrations in Manitoba’s 17 largest trade programs. It is important this momentum is not lost as we work to fill the labour shortage experienced in several key trades.”

Based on projected new registrations and completion trends, however, several Manitoba trades may be at risk of potentially undersupplying the number of new journeypersons required by 2032. Trades within this group include Bricklayer, Carpenter, Mobile Crane Operator, Roofer, and Welder.

“The construction industry is working collaboratively to build a more diverse and inclusive labour force. To that end, efforts are ongoing to enhance the recruitment of youth, individuals from equity-deserving groups traditionally under-represented in the construction sector, and from outside the country through permanent immigration,” said Paul de Jong, President of the Progressive Contractors Association of Canada.

In 2022, there were approximately 5,930 women employed in Manitoba’s construction industry. Of them, only 26% worked directly in on-site construction. Women represented just 4% of the 38,600 tradespeople employed in Manitoba’s industry in 2022. All figures are virtually unchanged from 2021.

The Indigenous population is another under-represented group that presents recruitment opportunities for Manitoba’s construction industry. In 2021, Indigenous workers accounted for approximately 17% of the province’s construction labour force. That figure was the highest among all provincial labour forces and is notably higher than the share of Indigenous People represented in the overall labour force (13%). As the Indigenous population is the fastest growing in Canada and Indigenous workers seem predisposed to the pursuit of careers within the sector, there may be scope to further increase the recruitment of Indigenous People into the province’s construction industry.

The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement trends, Manitoba is expected to welcome an average of just over 11,000 newcomers every year through 2032, making the immigrant population a key potential source of labour force growth. Currently, newcomers and more established immigrants make up about 15% of the province’s construction workforce. This figure is notably lower than the share in the overall provincial labour force.

“To avoid chronic labour force shortages, increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and new Canadians will be imperative to help Manitoba’s construction industry meet its future labour force needs,” said Darryl Harrison, Director of Stakeholder Engagement with the Winnipeg Construction Association.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 2220.

This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:

Ramona Coey
Executive Director
Mechanical Contractors Association of Manitoba
204-774-2404

Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada (PCA)
403-620-3781

Darryl Harrison
Director, Stakeholder Engagement
Winnipeg Construction Association
204-755-8664 ext. 2249

Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

Labour market challenges could continue across Ontario’s construction industry into the near future, as ongoing activity in both the residential and non-residential sectors builds employment to a peak in 2028 and adds pressure to already-tight recruiting conditions.

BuildForce Canada published its 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for Ontario today. It finds that labour markets for many of Ontario’s construction trades and occupations were strained at the end of 2022. Despite rising interest rates, activity in the residential sector remained strong, spurred by high levels of migration into the province and high levels of renovation activity. Meanwhile, the province’s non-residential sector continues to be buoyed by a long list of major projects in nearly every region.

Looking across the 10-year forecast period, activity in the province’s residential sector will be influenced by several key variables. Rising interest rates are expected to contract the province’s new-housing construction sector in 2023 and 2024. These contractions will be moderated somewhat by strong migration into the province, while overall residential activity will be supported by a renovation and maintenance sector that is expected to grow continuously through 2032. After contracting slightly in 2023 and 2024, overall residential employment is expected to reach a peak in 2030, before slowing through 2032.

Meanwhile, the province’s non-residential sector is projected to grow across the forecast period, as major projects in every region drive demands higher. Employment is expected to reach a peak of 16% above 2022 levels in 2027 as work culminates on many major projects. Key projects include light-rail transit and subway projects in major urban centres, ongoing nuclear refurbishments at Bruce Power and Ontario Power Generation, and major health-sector and other institutional projects across all regions.

The outlook for the complete forecast period sees construction and maintenance employment rising to a peak in 2028, by which time it will have increased by nearly 8% above 2022 levels. By 2032, however, it is expected to slow to 5% above 2022 levels, with growth pronounced in the non-residential sector (+11%) and a more modest expansion of 2% forecast for the residential sector.

These numbers are based on existing known demands and do not take into account the federal government’s goal to double the number of new homes built across Canada over the next 10 years, nor the anticipated increase in demand for construction services related to the retrofit of existing residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings to accommodate the electrification of the economy.

“Ontario’s construction and maintenance sector is poised for a number of years of strong growth,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Its challenge will be working within already-taxed labour markets. A number of older workers who exited the labour market during the COVID-19 pandemic have been slow to return. This fact, combined with steady employment gains, has pushed construction-sector unemployment rates to record-low levels. The situation is further complicated by the loss of skills and experience created by the departure of these older workers, and which cannot easily be replaced by new hires.”

Although interconnected, Ontario’s five regions – Central, Eastern, Greater Toronto Area, Northern, and Southwestern – each feature discrete labour market conditions and can create complementary and competing demands for workers.

Central Ontario has seen its construction sector bolstered in part by a significant outflow of residents from the Greater Toronto Area in recent years. Pandemic-driven work-from-home arrangements, combined with improved rail transportation and a lower cost of living, have helped to advance new-housing construction in the region. The local housing market is expected to contract in 2023 due to rising interest rates, but growth is expected again by 2025. Non-residential employment will be sustained by a combination of major engineering-construction projects, many of them in the Hamilton area. Total construction employment is anticipated to add 1% over 2022 levels, with increases exclusive to the non-residential sector.

Eastern Ontario reported some of the tightest labour markets in the province in 2022, with most trades and occupations strained. Although recruiting challenges are expected to ease in the residential sector in the near term, the outlook for the non-residential sector suggests challenges could remain through 2027 and 2028. The regional market is benefiting from a series of high-value public-sector projects, including the second phase of Ottawa’s light rail line, the redevelopment of Parliament Hill’s Centre Block, and the refurbishment and construction of several other federal buildings. New hospital projects in Ottawa and Kingston add to market demands in later years. Overall employment rises to a peak in 2027 and moderates thereafter.

The Greater Toronto Area’s construction market is underpinned by a series of large-scale public transportation, nuclear refurbishment, new hospital, and other government building restoration projects that bring non-residential employment to a peak in 2027. Meanwhile, the regional residential sector is expected to emerge from a short contraction by 2024 and will be supported by a combination of a growing and aging housing stock that requires continual maintenance, and by a general trend of older individuals investing in their homes to age in place. Overall construction employment grows by 27,200 workers (+16%) over 2022 levels by 2032.

The construction market in Northern Ontario is heavily influenced by activity in the mining and utility sectors. With both expected to report strong gains in 2023, and with work on the Thunder Bay correctional facility and the Weeneebayko hospital scheduled to begin in later forecast years, non-residential employment should be sustained at elevated levels through at least 2027. The outlook for the residential sector follows a similar trend.

Southwestern Ontario has been supported by a strong housing market, also driven by out-migration from the Greater Toronto Area. After a brief decline in 2022, the regional residential market should rise to peak employment by 2027 before receding in later years. The local non-residential sector, meanwhile, begins the forecast period operating at elevated levels, with ongoing work on the Bruce Power nuclear refurbishment, the Gordie Howe bridge, new battery manufacturing and auto retooling investments, and a significant rise in industrial shutdown/turnaround maintenance work in Sarnia. The proposed start of the Windsor acute care hospital in 2026 adds to employment later in the period. By 2032, Southwestern Ontario’s construction sector is expected to contract modestly from elevated 2022 levels.

Meeting peak demands across Ontario’s discrete regions will be challenged by limited interregional mobility, as high levels of demand are projected to exist in most regional construction markets across the province over the near term. Construction also faces the added challenge of an aging workforce. When combined with employment increases created by growth, the expected retirement of more than 82,600 workers (18% of the 2022 labour force) will increase overall industry hiring requirements to nearly 119,000 over the forecast period.

Due in part to increased and targeted promotional efforts, the provincial construction industry has grown the number of young workers under the age of 25 in its labour force by 7% since 2019. Across the entire forecast period, it is expected to recruit approximately 88,400 new entrants under the age of 30 from within the province. This leaves a projected gap of almost 30,500 workers that will need to be filled from a variety of sources outside the existing labour force to meet demands.

The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. New registrations in the province’s 32 largest trade programs reached record levels in 2019, and have risen faster than employment over the past decade as a whole, leading to an increased supply of journeypersons.

Based on the current pace of new apprenticeship registrations and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of undersupplying the number of new journeypersons required by 2032.  They include Bricklayer, Carpenter, Construction Craft Worker, Floor Covering Installer, Glazier, Heavy-Duty Equipment Operator, Industrial Instrumentation Technician, Insulator (heat and frost), Mobile Crane Operator, Painter and Decorator, Roofer, Tractor Trailer Driver, and Welder.

The construction industry remains focused on building a more diverse and inclusive labour force. To that end, efforts are ongoing to enhance the recruitment of individuals from groups traditionally under-represented in the province’s construction labour force, such as women, Indigenous People, and newcomers to Canada.

In 2022, Ontario’s construction industry employed approximately 70,400 women. That figure represents an increase of nearly 2,700 from 2021’s total. Of them, only 23% worked directly in on-site construction, however. As a share of the total, women represented just 4% of the more than 435,000 tradespeople employed in Ontario in 2022. Those figures are unchanged from 2021.

The Indigenous population is another under-represented group that presents recruitment opportunities for Ontario’s construction industry. In 2021, Indigenous workers accounted for 3% of the province’s construction labour force. That figure is unchanged from the share observed in 2016, and slightly higher than the 2.5% represented in the overall labour force. As the Indigenous population is the fastest growing in Canada and Indigenous workers seem predisposed to the pursuit of careers within the sector, there may be scope to further increase the recruitment of Indigenous People into the province’s construction industry.

The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement trends, Ontario is expected to welcome an average of nearly 190,500 newcomers every year through 2032. This fact could make the immigrant population a key source of labour force growth. In 2021, newcomers comprised 27% of Ontario’s construction labour force.

Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and new Canadians could help Ontario’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 2220.

This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:

Mark Arsenault
Business Manager and Secretary Treasurer
Provincial Building and Construction Trades Council of Ontario
647-402-0390

Mike Carter
Executive Director
London & District Construction Association
519-453-5322

Giovanni Cautillo
President
Ontario General Contractors Association
905-671-3969

Ian Cunningham
President
Council of Ontario Construction Associations
416-968-7200 ext. 224

John A. DeVries
President & GM
Ottawa Construction Association
613-236-0488, ext. 10

Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
403-620-3781

Tony Fanelli
Executive Director
Construction Labour Relations Association – Ontario
647-296-3402

Andrew Pariser
Vice-President
RESCON
416-970-7665

Wayne Peterson
Executive Director
Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario
905-516-6693

Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

Sustained activity in New Brunswick’s residential and industrial, commercial, and institutional sectors created further growth in the province’s construction industry in 2022. With further gains expected in 2023, already-strained labour markets are unlikely to ease much in the near term.

New labour market forecast data by BuildForce Canada suggests that further increases are expected across New Brunswick’s residential and non-residential construction sectors in 2023. These are spurred by increased demand for residential renovation activity and peak investment levels in the industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) sector.

Residential demands are expected to contract through the remainder of the near term before rebounding into the later years of the forecast period in response to growing demands for renovation and maintenance work. Demands in the non-residential sector, meanwhile, will moderate briefly before rising to a peak in 2029, in line with work on the Mactaquac Dam.

BuildForce Canada’s 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for New Brunswick, released today, anticipates construction employment to rise to a short-term peak in 2023, before moderating to 2026 and cycling back up to a peak in 2027 that is largely sustained through the remainder of the forecast period. Employment adds 660 workers, or 3% over 2022 levels.

“New Brunswick’s labour force faces a dual challenge across the forecast period,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Labour markets were strained entering this forecast period and will remain at or near capacity for many residential and non-residential trades and occupations in the short term. In the longer run, its challenge will be addressing market requirements with a diminished pool of workers that is created by an aging provincial demographic.”

Rising demands will require the province’s construction labour force to increase by as many as 2,000 workers across the decade. The retirement of an expected 6,500 workers, or 27% of its 2022 labour force, over the same block of time will increase overall hiring requirements to 8,500 workers. This challenge could be further complicated by the shrinking pool of available new entrants as population growth slows and fewer youth are available to enter the labour force. These numbers are based on existing known demands and do not take into account the federal government’s goal to double the number of new homes built across Canada over the next 10 years, nor the anticipated increase in demand for construction services related to the retrofit of existing residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings to accommodate the electrification of the economy.

The industry’s hiring requirement could be partly addressed through the recruitment of a potential 4,700 workers under the age of 30 from the local population, but based on current analysis, a gap of some 3,800 workers may emerge.

The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program. New Brunswick has seen significant fluctuations in registration levels in its 16 largest trade programs over recent years. New registrations declined by approximately 7% from 2010 to 2019, while trade employment declined at a slightly faster pace of 12% over the same period.

Based on the current pace of new apprenticeship registrations and completion trends, several trades may be at risk of undersupplying the number of journeypersons required by 2032: Bricklayer, Boilermaker, Carpenter, Sprinkler System Installer, and Welder.

“The construction industry remains focused on building a more diverse and inclusive labour force and to that end, the industry has been focused on enhancing the recruitment of younger workers into the trades, particularly those from groups traditionally under-represented in the province’s construction labour force, such as women, Indigenous People, and newcomers to Canada,” says John Ryan Morrison, Executive Director of the Construction Association of New Brunswick.

In 2022, there were approximately 2,810 women employed in New Brunswick’s construction industry. That figure was unchanged from 2021. Of them, 30% worked on site, directly on construction projects, while the remainder worked off site, primarily in administrative and management-related occupations. Of the 21,500 tradespeople employed in the provincial industry, women made up only 3%. That figure is unchanged from 2021.

The Indigenous population is another under-represented group that presents recruitment opportunities for New Brunswick’s construction industry. In 2021, Indigenous workers accounted for approximately 3.7% of the province’s construction labour force, a slight increase from levels observed in 2016. As the Indigenous population is the fastest growing in Canada and Indigenous workers seem predisposed to the pursuit of careers within the sector, there may be scope to further increase the recruitment of Indigenous People into the province’s construction industry.

The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement trends, the province is expected to welcome an average of 8,520 newcomers every year through 2032. This fact could make the immigrant population a key source of labour force growth. As of 2021, the construction labour force share of immigrants was 3%. That is less than half of the immigrant share in the overall labour force, and significantly lower than the share in Canada’s construction industry.

“With retirements increasing in the provincial construction labour force, increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and newcomers to Canada is imperative to ensuring New Brunswick’s construction industry is able to meet its future labour force needs,” says Tom McGinn, Executive Director of the New Brunswick Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at [email protected] or 613-569-5552 ext. 2220.

This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:

Tom McGinn
Executive Director
New Brunswick Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association
506-454-5079

John Ryan Morrison
Executive Director
Construction Association of New Brunswick
506-459-5770

Funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.